The Bank of Japan recently widened the range in which long-term bond yields can fluctuate due to rising Treasury yields and five straight days of losses in the market. Additionally, U.S. equity futures have slightly decreased as investors attempt to end a four-day losing streak in the stock market.
These developments come amid worries about the potential for a near-term recession and the Federal Reserve’s decision to continue raising benchmark interest rates to combat high inflation.
In addition, the U.S. stock market has had a challenging year, experiencing its worst performance since the financial crisis in 2008, as investors grapple with a deteriorating economy, reduced earnings projections, and rising interest rates.
Potential Impact on Earnings for the S&P 500 Index
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have indicated that earnings for the S&P 500 index, a widely used measure of stock market performance, could come in lower than the current consensus estimate of $231 per share for the coming year.
This potential weakness could cause the benchmark to decline by approximately 20% from its current levels. In addition, analysts expect earnings for the fourth quarter of the year to decrease by 1.1% compared to last year, totaling $452.1 billion.
Potential Effects of Japanese Yields on Global Markets
The Bank of Japan allowed the range in which the interest rates on 10-year government bonds can fluctuate to become wider by 50 basis points, which is a unit of measurement for interest rates. This action caused the value of the Japanese yen to increase against the U.S. dollar to a multi-month high.
As a result, the interest rates on 10-year government bonds also reached their highest levels in more than eight years. An increase in the interest rates on Japanese yields is likely to cause more changes and unpredictability in the global stock and bond markets.
The increase could benefit Japanese financial companies but could harm foreign assets, especially U.S. government bonds, which many Japanese investors own. In terms of stocks, this could mean that Japanese financial companies are more favorable to investors than technology and exporting companies.
Interest rates on U.S. government bonds, called Treasury yields, have increased, with 10-year Treasury yields rising seven basis points and 2-year yields increasing to 4.281%. In addition, the value of the U.S. dollar has decreased against other global currencies.
As a result, stock futures, financial instruments that represent the value of stocks, are expected to start the trading day lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite expected to decline. The Japanese stock market fell, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping 2.46% to a two-month low.
The MSCI ex-Japan index, which tracks stock performance in the region excluding Japan, also declined by 1%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index was lower by 0.423% at mid-day. FTSE 100 index was down 0.02% in London.